TL;DR: Katie joined us on the floor at the Alpha Capital Casino Royale event in London. She trades FX with a macroeconomic bias layered over technical analysis, after years of frustration watching flawless-looking setups stop out for no obvious chart reason. Her philosophy: technicals and fundamentals both drive price, and your job is identifying which one is in control right now. She is still intermediate on macro, but her focus is clear. Perfect the macro read, then lock it into a mechanical system you follow day in, day out, with a backup plan ready when the market disagrees.
Watch the full interview on YouTube
Katie stopped us on the Casino Royale floor for a macro-focused conversation between sessions. She had just been speaking on stage about combining fundamental analysis with a rules-based execution plan. We asked why she moved beyond pure technicals, how she reads events like French elections and NFP, and what she is building next. If you are new to prop firms, start with how prop firms work, then read Are prop firms legit?.
Why she added fundamentals: the perfect setup that still lost
Katie describes herself as inquisitive. She always wanted to know why price moved, not just where it moved.
"I was always a technical trader before. I'm always the type of person that asked why. Why was this movement happening? I couldn't get my head around getting stopped out and then not knowing why that was happening."
She had seen it repeatedly. The chart looked clean. Someone versed in ICT or any technical framework would call it a perfect setup. It lost anyway.
"Not enough people talk about that. Technicals isn't a guarantee. It's just one facet to the picture."
That frustration pushed her toward macroeconomic trading. Fundamentals, in her view, are what actually drive the market over time. Technicals tell you where to execute. Macro tells you whether the environment supports the trade at all.
Her current philosophy is nuanced. She does not believe fundamentals replace technicals or the other way around.
"I think all technicals are in the picture. It's just which one is most predominant. You're not necessarily wrong. It's identifying what is driving this current technical picture."
Sometimes fundamentals lead and the chart follows. Sometimes the chart leads and data backfills later. The skill is knowing which force is dominant today.
For another trader building a similar dual approach, see Dom's interview on marrying fundamentals with support and resistance or Fabio's macro-driven swing model.
Reading elections through bonds: the French example
At Casino Royale, Katie had been speaking with Joe about how macro and risk interlink. The French elections were a live example.
She admitted she initially underestimated how much impact the French vote would have. Then she looked at bonds. Specifically the OAT versus Bund spread, the gap between French and German government debt yields.
"By looking at them, it pretty much tells you all you need to know about what the market thinks."
The spread was at its worst level since 2012. Politics, normally a background noise event for FX traders, became a market-moving story because uncertainty spiked. Macron's snap election call created a vacuum the bond market priced immediately.
Katie's read evolved as the story developed. Early uncertainty hurt the euro. Then the market manufactured a more comfortable outcome: a hung parliament looked increasingly baked into price. Left and centre parties pulled seats in a way that made a full Le Pen majority unlikely. Nothing calamitous would happen. The euro recovered.
"The hung Parliament is pretty much baked into price. That is why we are seeing the increase back in the euro at the moment."
She compares it to the UK election on 4 July. The market largely knew Labour would win. The question was margin of victory, not outcome. Sterling reaction was muted because the result was already priced. Too much certainty and too much uncertainty are both problems for markets. Investors want the middle ground.
That kind of event-driven read is exactly what pure chart traders miss when a technically perfect euro trade fails during a political shock. For broader context on how macro fits prop firm trading, see Mo Keani's fundamental plus price action approach.
Risk on, risk off, and why the chart lied last week
Katie tracks how macro themes stack on top of each other in real time.
Risk has been at the forefront of markets for years. Investors want return, but they also want capital protection. When those priorities flip, everything moves together.
She points to a recent cluster: soft US data suggesting rate cuts, the Biden health story creating political risk, and Trump trade rhetoric pushing yields higher on inflation fears. If you were only reading NFP prints or staring at a chart, the dollar strength looked irrational.
"But it's the fact that that is a risk-risk situation. Trump is going to be inflationary, which means you get a strong dollar, higher rates for longer."
Understanding policy underneath the headline is the difference between confusion and a plan.
She also watches futures and commodity flow data. In June she noted outflows across futures markets while headline risk was elevated. The phrase on Bloomberg was that "the hedgies have gone to Hampton." Less institutional participation means thinner liquidity, which explains muted volatility in some currency pairs even when the macro picture looks tense.
Gold got hit on reports that China was not buying officially, but Katie notes central banks were still accumulating for strategic reasons. That is macro information you never get from a candlestick alone.
Dollar view: the frustrating path below 100
Katie has been talking about dollar weakness for a long time. Her framework uses Elliott wave structure: a third and final big C leg on the DXY that should eventually take it below 100.
"We keep playing out ones and twos, nesting. It just becomes ultimately frustrating because that has extended a few times."
Recently the dollar broke its downtrend and printed lower lows again, but underlying data is weakening and seasonality may be turning supportive for her bearish thesis. She describes it as potentially being in the sweet spot now, while acknowledging how long the setup has taken to resolve.
Macro traders live in that gap between correct thesis and correct timing. That is why Katie keeps returning to the same conclusion: macro alone is not enough.
The mechanical edge: what Katie is building next
Katie is honest about where she sits.
"I feel like I'm an intermediate with the macros. I've still got a lot to learn. It's really where I find my interest."
Her next step is not more indicators. It is discipline.
"I am in the process now of trying to perfect as much as I can with macros whilst also having that mechanical system. With macros you can know a lot, but you also need a mechanical edge where you've got a trade plan and you follow your rules day in, day out."
That message matches what other Casino Royale speakers have stressed. Dan Cheung talked about removing tilt days and reviewing your journal properly. Daniel FM argued for trading less and letting selectivity do the work. Riz Sardar spoke about mechanical rules and limiting human input on the chart. Katie's version is macro conviction plus mechanical execution.
Her live example from the conversation with Joe: sentiment and data can align after the fact.
"You can look at a chart and go it looks like it's going to sell off, but how can it with that data coming out? All of a sudden the data backfills what the chart is telling you."
Sometimes it works the other way. That is why she told the audience on stage to always have a backup.
"Have a backup. What will happen if that doesn't happen? You know you're ready. Everyone's floundering and you can go the other way."
In a prop firm evaluation, or what many traders call a prop firm challenge, that backup plan is the difference between one bad news candle and a breached account. Rules from Alpha Capital exist partly to force that pause.
Why events like Casino Royale matter for macro traders
Katie's interview happened in motion, on the event floor, surrounded by other traders who think about the same problems from different angles.
That is the point of Casino Royale. Trading is solitary. Macro trading can feel even more isolated because the research rabbit hole never ends. An event puts you in a room with people who will challenge your thesis in person, not in a Discord argument at midnight.
For traders building a macro plus technical model inside an evaluation, the combination Katie describes is the long game: learn the big picture slowly, execute mechanically daily, and always know your plan B.
Not sure which Alpha Capital programme fits an intraday FX macro approach versus a swing bias? Pick your Alpha path compares Alpha One, Pro, Swing, and Three.
FAQs
Who is Katie and what does she trade?
Katie is an FX trader with around three to four years in the market and roughly two years focused specifically on macro trading. She started as a technical trader and added fundamentals to explain why valid-looking setups were failing. She was interviewed at the Alpha Capital Casino Royale event in London.
Why do perfect technical setups still lose?
Katie's view is that technical analysis is only one part of the picture. Fundamentals, political events, rate expectations, and risk sentiment can override a clean chart setup. Without understanding the macro environment, a trader cannot explain why a technically perfect trade stopped out, which makes repeat mistakes more likely.
How does Katie combine fundamentals and technicals?
She identifies which force is driving the current market: fundamentals leading technicals, or technicals leading until data confirms. She uses macro for bias and context (elections, bond spreads, NFP, CPI, futures flows) and technicals for execution. Her goal is to pair that read with a mechanical trade plan she follows consistently.
What is a mechanical edge in trading?
A mechanical edge is a rules-based system with defined entries, exits, and risk parameters that a trader follows daily without improvisation. Katie argues macro knowledge alone is not enough. You need a written plan and the discipline to execute it the same way whether the previous trade won or lost.
How did Katie read the French elections for FX?
She tracked the OAT-Bund bond spread, which widened to levels not seen since 2012 as political uncertainty rose. As a hung parliament outcome became priced in and the worst-case scenario looked less likely, euro sentiment improved. She uses bond markets as a real-time gauge of what institutional participants think about political risk.
What should traders do when their macro thesis is wrong?
Katie recommends always having a backup plan before entering. If the primary thesis fails, you should already know what you will do instead of improvising while other traders are floundering. That might mean flipping bias, standing aside, or taking a smaller validation trade at reduced risk.
What is the Alpha Capital Casino Royale event?
Casino Royale is a live trading event hosted by Alpha Capital in London. It brings together retail traders, Qualified Traders, guest speakers, and industry professionals for networking, talks, and floor interviews like this one. The first event sold out in under 24 hours with around 200 attendees.
Ready to start your evaluation?
Katie's edge is still being built. Macro read. Mechanical rules. Backup plan. That is the combination she is working toward inside the structure of a prop firm evaluation, where simulated accounts and drawdown limits force the discipline that solo chart trading rarely provides.
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Alpha Capital Group is a proprietary trading firm based in the United Kingdom. All accounts operate in a simulated trading environment with simulated funds unless a specific product states otherwise. Performance fees are based on eligible simulated trading results and outcomes are not guaranteed. Katie's views on markets and macro events reflect her individual analysis at the time of the interview and are not investment advice or forecasts. Always confirm live rules, pricing, eligibility, and evaluation requirements on alphacapitalgroup.uk and help.alphacapitalgroup.uk before purchasing an evaluation.
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