Leaking Glass, MAG7 Power & Tariff Jitters
Key Market Themes: A Geopolitical Tightrope and MAG7 Mania
Trump’s central bank poking, China’s trade flip-flops, and Russia’s staged posturing made for a loud macro week. Yet through it all, the US markets cling to safe-haven status.
- US-China trade shows deceleration
- Dollar trust erosion fears grow
De-dollarisation risks loom, but liquidity remains positive in the short run. Meanwhile, MAG7 earnings juggernauts look ready to unleash another AI-fueled rally.
Technical & Sentiment Analysis: Is This Rally for Real?
The SPX has rebounded fiercely from the post-Liberation Day crash, but critical technical crossroads are here:
SPX Decision Point
- Hovering at the 50% Fib retracement
Breadth
- Breadth shallow: Despite strong price action, underlying breadth remains suspect
Volatility
- VIX is cooling but not yet comfortably low
- VVIX calming signals volatility premium fading
Positioning & Sentiment
- Retail sour, insiders buying
Historical echoes from 1998 remain strong but suggest a re-test of lows before the breakout:
- Ken Fisher's 1998 analogy
- Jurrien Timmer's breakdown retest thesis
Pain Trade
Upwards as even the bulls see a pullback.
Short-Term Risk
Choppy pullback before real upside.
Last Week’s Recap: Wall Street Roars as Tariffs Bite Main Street
Big beats from AI-powered companies saved the week:
- ServiceNow soared 16%, Alphabet cloud metrics shone.
- Tesla rebounded, despite weak margins.
- Durable Goods headline strong, core soft.
- Zweig Breadth thrust trigger confirmed.
Fund Flows
- Massive Treasury inflows
- Crypto mania reignited.
- UK retail defied miserable consumer sentiment
Upcoming Week Ahead: Data Tsunami Incoming
Hold your breath: it's a mega-week ahead.
Tuesday
CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS, GDPNow.
Wednesday
ADP Jobs, GDP, PCE inflation.
Thursday
ISM Manufacturing and BOJ interest rate decision (unch 0.5%e).
Friday
Non-Farm Payrolls.
Earnings
Wednesday
- Microsoft
- Meta
Thursday
- Amazon
- Apple
Midweek
- Visa
- UPS
- Caterpillar
SPX Volatility Remains Critical
Also, almost everyone sees a pullback brewing—no surprise given the sentiment tilt:
Actionable Takeaway: Half-Full Glass... But It's Still Leaking!
Alpha Capital’s Read
- SPX facing resistance around Fib levels — next 2–3 sessions critical.
- Zweig thrust and insider buying hint at medium-term upside.
- Near-term expect choppiness, headline-driven swings.
Stay flexible. Stay sharp.
